Covid-19 is killing more people in CNY right now than anything else – syracuse.com

Syracuse, N.Y Covid-19 is killing far more Onondaga County residents right now than any other cause of death.

With 204 deaths so far in December, Covid-19 is far outstripping the monthly average deaths from the typical leading cause of death: heart disease.

The numbers dont lie: At the moment, yes, Covid-19 is killing more people than heart disease, said Brian Leydet, an epidemiologist and infectious disease professor at SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry.

In fact, Covid-19 is killing more people than the three leading causes of death combined: heart disease, cancer and accidents. Combined, those three kill 178 county residents a month in a typical year.

December has been by far the deadliest month of the novel coronavirus pandemic, which has now caused the deaths of 445 Onondaga County residents since March. That total is certain to grow this week, and the pace could continue through January.

Given the really high number of cases and what were likely to see in cases in January, that will be followed, unfortunately, by more deaths, said Dr. Kathryn Anderson, a professor of immunology at Upstate Medical University.

Its important to note, experts say, that Covid-19, an infectious disease, differs in important ways from other leading causes of death, which are primarily chronic lifestyle conditions.

First, unlike deaths from chronic diseases, Covid-19 deaths fluctuate greatly by season. Like many viruses, the coronavirus tends to spread more easily in dry, indoor environments, and people spend more time socializing indoors as the weather turns cold. Few people died from Covid-19 this summer and fall: From Aug. 1 to Oct. 31, a combined 13 county residents died of the disease. Deaths began to climb in November and rose exponentially in December.

Second, because the virus, called SARS-CoV-2, recently evolved, humans have no natural immunity to it. If the vaccines being rolled out now are as effective as promised, experts say deaths from Covid-19 should fall dramatically.

To keep things in perspective, there have been 330 COVID deaths in the county over the whole year so far, said Syracuse University sociology professor Shannon Monnat on Dec. 22. There are still far more deaths annually from heart disease and cancer.

Heart disease kills an average of 979 people per year in Onondaga County, according to the most recent five years of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data. Cancer is just slightly behind, accounting for about 907 deaths a year. At a distant third, accidents take about 255 lives each year.

If these numbers are similar for 2020, Monnat said, Covid will be the third-leading cause of death in the county this year.

Its possible that deaths from heart disease and cancer will be lower this year, replaced by deaths from Covid-19. All three conditions primarily strike older people, and Covid-19 particularly targets those who have chronic conditions like heart disease and cancer, called co-morbidities. Someone who might have died of heart disease in December, for example, might instead have succumbed to Covid-19 in November.

You could see a decrease in other diseases because of Coviod-19 prematurely killing people with co-morbidities, Leydet said.

From 2015 to 2019, an average of 4,381 county residents died each year, according to CDC data. As of Dec. 10, the county Department of Health had documented 4,380 deaths, with three more weeks left in the year.

Neither of those figures are official, however. Total numbers and causes of deaths arent officially compiled and declared final for two or three years. It can take that long for death certificates to be finalized as they pass through several levels of review, from local and state health departments to the CDC.

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Covid-19 is killing more people in CNY right now than anything else - syracuse.com