Warning: Senate Races Aren’t as Close as They Appear

By Stuart Rothenberg Posted at 5 a.m. April 29

Nunn is running for the open Senate seat in Georgia. (Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call File Photo)

Ive noticed with some alarm how many people fail to make reasonable distinctions among races that admittedly have some factors in common.

So let me make an important distinction: While Democratic Senate candidates Alison Lundergan Grimes, 35, and Michelle Nunn, 47, have difficult races ahead of them in Kentucky and Georgia, each has a path to victory.

Conversely, I dont currently see a path for West Virginia Democrat Natalie Tennant, 46.

Grimes likely general-election opponent, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, 72, has been in Congress for 30 years. Hes part of his partys leadership and his personal poll numbers are mediocre, at best.

Grimes offers an obvious contrast on many levels to McConnell, and she has the resources to mount a formidable campaign. Of course, there are many hurdles ahead of her, but they dont negate her assets and opportunity.

Nunn has a terrific name in the Peach State and in Washington, D.C. Her father was (and is) a highly regarded pragmatic Democrat, and her association with the Bush family through her connection with the Points of Light Foundation is an asset.

To have a serious chance of victory, Nunn probably needs to run against a Republican who would have problems within his or her own party. Rep. Paul Broun, a libertarian-leaning Republican member of Congress with a penchant for saying stupid things for example, that evolution, embryology and the Big Bang theory are lies straight from the pit of hell obviously would give Nunn her best chance for success, but he may not be the only Republican unable to hold the seat in the fall.

Interestingly, while the Club for Growth has endorsed four Senate candidates this cycle (in Alaska, Arkansas, Mississippi and Nebraska), it has not endorsed Brouns Senate bid, even though the Georgia congressman has a 99 percent lifetime rating from the group. The conservative group knows his tendency for saying the outlandish could come back to haunt him and the club.

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Warning: Senate Races Aren't as Close as They Appear